Estimator 2020
January 30th, 2020
⏰.1 minute read
⏰.1 minute read
Profit
It is of course one of the most frequently asked investor questions... when will you be making a profit? & of course, it’s one of the most difficult to answer. It is never easy to predict a financial number. It’s almost impossible. But at least we can try to estimate & luckily BWPT is very simple & we have the numbers readily available for you. Here’s how to make an estimate.
It is of course one of the most frequently asked investor questions... when will you be making a profit? & of course, it’s one of the most difficult to answer. It is never easy to predict a financial number. It’s almost impossible. But at least we can try to estimate & luckily BWPT is very simple & we have the numbers readily available for you. Here’s how to make an estimate.
Fruit
We share with you the monthly fruit production numbers in our data file. & we also give you indications along the way during the month what the production is likely to be. With a couple of days left, January, a traditionally low post holiday & heavy rain month, will end up almost the same as December. Multiplying the last 31 days of fruit by 3 gives us our first estate of quarterly production.
Price
Anyone can check the daily palm oil prices on the Malaysian exchange & while they’re not always matching with our selling prices, it’s a reasonable proxy over time. We can estimate the quarterly oil by using a historical average factor of 0.22 x the fruit, which is calculated from our monthly history in the data file. Then multiply this by the last 31 days average oil price to get the quarterky sales.
Costs
To get the pre tax profit, you just need to minus the total costs from the sales. In order to keep it simple you can use the data file again & from the latest quarterly results, take the difference between the pre tax profit & the sales. That is the total costs & includes the operating costs, the depreciation & the interest. Our profit estimator uses those 3 simple numbers, production, price & costs to give a moving estimate of the profit & you can use it too.
Profit
Of course it’s only an estimate & we are using 31 days to predict a quarter, so it’s never going to be perfect, but at least it’s using real data rather than theoretical. This is a newer version of the previous model & we will test it out to see how well it works over the course of this exciting 1Q 2020. I can’t wait. The estimator is here.
Sebastian
We share with you the monthly fruit production numbers in our data file. & we also give you indications along the way during the month what the production is likely to be. With a couple of days left, January, a traditionally low post holiday & heavy rain month, will end up almost the same as December. Multiplying the last 31 days of fruit by 3 gives us our first estate of quarterly production.
Price
Anyone can check the daily palm oil prices on the Malaysian exchange & while they’re not always matching with our selling prices, it’s a reasonable proxy over time. We can estimate the quarterly oil by using a historical average factor of 0.22 x the fruit, which is calculated from our monthly history in the data file. Then multiply this by the last 31 days average oil price to get the quarterky sales.
Costs
To get the pre tax profit, you just need to minus the total costs from the sales. In order to keep it simple you can use the data file again & from the latest quarterly results, take the difference between the pre tax profit & the sales. That is the total costs & includes the operating costs, the depreciation & the interest. Our profit estimator uses those 3 simple numbers, production, price & costs to give a moving estimate of the profit & you can use it too.
Profit
Of course it’s only an estimate & we are using 31 days to predict a quarter, so it’s never going to be perfect, but at least it’s using real data rather than theoretical. This is a newer version of the previous model & we will test it out to see how well it works over the course of this exciting 1Q 2020. I can’t wait. The estimator is here.
Sebastian