EAGLE HIGH PLANTATIONS
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Estimator 2020

January 30th, 2020
⏰.1 minute read
Profit
‪It is of course one of the most frequently asked investor questions... when will you be making a profit? & of course, it’s one of the most difficult to answer. It is never easy to predict a financial number. It’s almost impossible. But at least we can try to estimate & luckily BWPT is very simple & we have the numbers readily available for you. Here’s how to make an estimate.‬
Fruit
‪We share with you the monthly fruit production numbers in our data file. & we also give you indications along the way during the month what the production is likely to be. With a couple of days left, January, a traditionally low post holiday & heavy rain month, will end up almost the same as December. Multiplying the last 31 days of fruit by 3 gives us our first estate of quarterly production.‬

Price
‪Anyone can check the daily palm oil prices on the Malaysian exchange & while they’re not always matching with our selling prices, it’s a reasonable proxy over time. We can estimate the quarterly oil by using a historical average factor of 0.22 x the fruit, which is calculated from our monthly history in the data file. Then multiply this by the last 31 days average oil price to get the quarterky sales.‬

Costs
‪To get the pre tax profit, you just need to minus the total costs from the sales. In order to keep it simple you can use the data file again & from the latest quarterly results, take the difference between the pre tax profit & the sales. That is the total costs & includes the operating costs, the depreciation & the interest. Our profit estimator uses those 3 simple numbers, production, price & costs to give a moving estimate of the profit & you can use it too.‬

Profit
‪Of course it’s only an estimate & we are using 31 days to predict a quarter, so it’s never going to be perfect, but at least it’s using real data rather than theoretical. This is a newer version of the previous model & we will test it out to see how well it works over the course of this exciting 1Q 2020. I can’t wait. The estimator is here.

Sebastian
PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk
​12F Noble House
Mega Kuningan
Jakarta 12950
​+62 (021) 2978 3093,
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