You have 2 months left to get into palm oil before...
Oil World updates
March 26th, 2019
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Oil World
One thing which has always amazed me & might surprise you about the palm oil industry is how little data there is. Normally in markets you get lots of consumer data & plenty of long term future predictions. Palm oil has neither. We don’t even know how palm oil is consumed. This makes Oil World updates important...
Mature hectares
Oil World is a long term source of edible oil & palm oil data. It’s packed with data on supply & demand. But the data is mostly historical. Forecasts are a maximum of 1 year ahead & for most of the year less than that. There’s no planting data, instead they have plantation mature area data, 4 years behind plantings, to predict future supply.
Our calculatoon
Oil World has a latest mature area number for 2019, that’s plantings from 2015. When they announced this number they revised higher the total, but the growth was a sharp slowdown (350k vs 700k hectares) from the previous year. This matches with EHP experience. 2015 was our last (small) year of planting & since then it’s been 0 hectares.
Others calculation
Our data is backed up by other data. A recent science study using Google Earth Pro has a slowdown in new plantings from 2009 & a very sharp slowdown in 2015/16 which is the latest data they have. In the last couple of weeks, we’ve taken data from 5 Indonesian listed companies which shows almost 0 new plantings from 2016 to 2018.
Announcement
There is a strong correlation of Oil World historical data & ours. So it’s likely when they announce 2020 new nature hectares it will be a low number, shockingly low. As this is the only data the industry has to go on, we could be in for a very big market shock. The data is normally out in the May or June edition. You have 2-3 moths left to get in....
Sebastian
One thing which has always amazed me & might surprise you about the palm oil industry is how little data there is. Normally in markets you get lots of consumer data & plenty of long term future predictions. Palm oil has neither. We don’t even know how palm oil is consumed. This makes Oil World updates important...
Mature hectares
Oil World is a long term source of edible oil & palm oil data. It’s packed with data on supply & demand. But the data is mostly historical. Forecasts are a maximum of 1 year ahead & for most of the year less than that. There’s no planting data, instead they have plantation mature area data, 4 years behind plantings, to predict future supply.
Our calculatoon
Oil World has a latest mature area number for 2019, that’s plantings from 2015. When they announced this number they revised higher the total, but the growth was a sharp slowdown (350k vs 700k hectares) from the previous year. This matches with EHP experience. 2015 was our last (small) year of planting & since then it’s been 0 hectares.
Others calculation
Our data is backed up by other data. A recent science study using Google Earth Pro has a slowdown in new plantings from 2009 & a very sharp slowdown in 2015/16 which is the latest data they have. In the last couple of weeks, we’ve taken data from 5 Indonesian listed companies which shows almost 0 new plantings from 2016 to 2018.
Announcement
There is a strong correlation of Oil World historical data & ours. So it’s likely when they announce 2020 new nature hectares it will be a low number, shockingly low. As this is the only data the industry has to go on, we could be in for a very big market shock. The data is normally out in the May or June edition. You have 2-3 moths left to get in....
Sebastian
Confidence builder before Oil World updates 2020 mature hectares...
