Why oh why...
June 24th, 2019
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Percent
To see how things are changing over time we can use a simple mathematical calculation. That calculation is the year on year change or YoY for short. For share prices this is the current share price divided by the share price a year ago multiplied by 100. How is this change doing for palm oil shares?
Peers
Every week we make this calculation for our palm oil peers. This is a group of 20 palm oil companies which are listed on the stock exchanges in Indonesia, Singapore & Malaysia. It’s a comprehensive list of all the main plantation stocks. The changes can tell us exactly how the sector is doing.
Negative
For as long as we can remember this year on year change has been very negative for the palm oil stocks. Even up to a few weeks ago the change was double digits negative. The lowest was -13% a few months ago & even just four weeks ago it was still at -12%. It’s been a very tough time for palm oil investors.
Less negative
But in the last few weeks, we have seen the change becoming less & less negative. At first the improvement was only small, but still noticeable. Then last week we have suddenly seen a big change. From -9% to -8% & now to only -3%. For the first time in forever, we are almost back to positive!
Positive
We can easily imagine that this trend is going to continue & the year on year change will soon become positive. This matches with the fundamental data which is that now supply is less than demand starting January 2019. So far this hasn’t had an impact on the price, but it will & that should drive up the share prices, finally back to plus YoY!
Sebastian
To see how things are changing over time we can use a simple mathematical calculation. That calculation is the year on year change or YoY for short. For share prices this is the current share price divided by the share price a year ago multiplied by 100. How is this change doing for palm oil shares?
Peers
Every week we make this calculation for our palm oil peers. This is a group of 20 palm oil companies which are listed on the stock exchanges in Indonesia, Singapore & Malaysia. It’s a comprehensive list of all the main plantation stocks. The changes can tell us exactly how the sector is doing.
Negative
For as long as we can remember this year on year change has been very negative for the palm oil stocks. Even up to a few weeks ago the change was double digits negative. The lowest was -13% a few months ago & even just four weeks ago it was still at -12%. It’s been a very tough time for palm oil investors.
Less negative
But in the last few weeks, we have seen the change becoming less & less negative. At first the improvement was only small, but still noticeable. Then last week we have suddenly seen a big change. From -9% to -8% & now to only -3%. For the first time in forever, we are almost back to positive!
Positive
We can easily imagine that this trend is going to continue & the year on year change will soon become positive. This matches with the fundamental data which is that now supply is less than demand starting January 2019. So far this hasn’t had an impact on the price, but it will & that should drive up the share prices, finally back to plus YoY!
Sebastian
